Lead, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

323
FXUS63 KUNR 241032
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
332 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly again today and Sunday; light snow possible tonight.

- Much warmer on Monday.

- Dry and mild through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 331 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

Latest surface obs show wind chills have dropped to 20 to 35
below zero. Have issued a Cold Weather Advisory areawide until 11
am MST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 150 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

Upper level northwest flow continues this morning across the
northern Great Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave
crossing central/eastern SD leaving in its wake clear skies across
the CWA. The next wave is swinging around Alberta into central MT.
This wave will eventually reach the CWA this afternoon, bringing a
return of clouds. Surface high pressure is in control over the upper
Midwest, with generally light southerly winds over the area. Some
weak low level warm air advection is expected this morning which
will support warmer temps in the teens and low 20s. But a
reinforcing shot of arctic air will surge in late this afternoon
into the evening with the aformentioned upper wave. This will also
bring chance pops of light snow tonight across the area...many
locations seeing no more than flurries. Upslope enhancement across
the northern Black Hills may result in an inch or two of dry powder.
Wind chills are expected to drop to -10 to -30F, late tonight into
Sunday morning, but at this time wind chill-related advisory
thresholds are not expected to be met. Sunday will be another chilly
day, with highs in the single digits to lower teens. At least, with
a strong 1040mb high sitting over the Dakotas, it won`t feel as cold
with sunny skies and light winds. Strong warm air advection will
begin Sunday night and continue into Monday, bringing an impressive
overnight warm up. Highs Monday will be in the 30s and 40s...maybe
even hitting 50 degrees in the eastern foothills of the Black Hills.
This is 30-40 degrees warmer in 24 hours. Models are still showing a
cold front crossing the Dakotas on Monday night but latest trend
keeps the frontal boundary stalled over the CWA or even farther east
over central SD. This would keep temperatures near seasonal averages
for late January...temps ranging from the 30s to the 40s. Right now
generally dry weather is expected next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 150 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions expected this morning. A cold front will cross the
area late this afternoon into the evening, bringing MVFR
conditions with light snow. Some local IFR conditions are possible
in the Black Hills area.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning
     for SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
WY...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
     WYZ054>060.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...13